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Gold prices have been climbing in recent days, largely due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. On Monday, 16th June 2025, domestic gold futures edged higher, crossing Rs 1,00,000 per 10 grams. The ongoing geopolitical unrest has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, investors are also closely watching the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision set for June 18.
As a result of this Blog, we will guide investors that in this situation, they should either buy more gold or wait for now.
Current Scenario of Israel–Iran Geopolitical Crisis
Former US President Donald Trump has said that peace between Israel and Iran is possible, but they might need to “fight it out” before they agree to talks. He also hinted that the US could step in directly if needed. Apart from the Israel-Iran conflict, another key factor influencing gold prices is the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting on June 18. Even though inflation has cooled down, the Fed may not cut interest rates yet because of ongoing uncertainty, especially due to the US tariff policy.
In May, US inflation data showed a modest increase:
- Headline CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year.
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.1% monthly and 2.8% yearly.
Investors urged to buy Gold strategically as prices rise
According to Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has introduced mild risk-off sentiment in global markets. While gold is holding firm due to increased safe-haven demand, equity markets have not shown signs of panic, indicating a selective shift toward safer assets.
For those eyeing the gold market, a well-planned approach is essential. Key support levels lie between ₹99,390 and ₹99,620, with resistance around ₹1,00,650 to ₹1,00,940. A breakout above these levels could lead to further price gains, especially if geopolitical tensions worsen or the rupee weakens. Silver is mirroring gold’s trend and could offer short-term opportunities.
So far in 2025, gold prices have surged by 30%.
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, noted that the lack of resolution in the Israel-Iran standoff is keeping gold prices buoyant. However, she added that oil currently commands more attention in global markets, potentially muting gold’s prominence in the short term.
Meanwhile, the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is also being closely monitored. A dovish tone or signals of interest rate cuts could further weaken the U.S. dollar and boost gold demand globally.
Expert View on Gold Market
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said gold prices are rising because of the unresolved tensions between Israel and Iran. According to her:
- Geopolitical worries are currently the main reason for gold’s upward trend.
- If tensions ease, some investors might sell gold to book profits.
- However, ongoing global conflicts, trade uncertainties, and the Fed’s next move are likely to keep gold prices from falling sharply.
- For now, oil prices are in the spotlight due to the crisis, and gold may temporarily take a backseat.
Should You Buy Gold Now or Wait?
1. Gold Remains a Trusted Long-Term Asset
- For long-term investors, gold continues to be a dependable hedge against global instability and economic shocks.
- It safeguards wealth during periods of inflation, currency depreciation, and market turbulence.
2. Short-Term Traders: Proceed with Caution
- For short-term gains, timing the market is critical.
- Gold prices are highly sensitive to global developments, so identifying the right entry point is essential.
3. Key Global Factors to Watch
- Oil Prices: Rising oil often reflects deeper geopolitical risks or inflation, both of which can push gold prices up.
- US Federal Reserve Signals: A dovish Fed or potential rate cuts can weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive.
- Middle East Conflict: Ongoing tensions, especially the Israel-Iran situation, boost gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
4. Gold Thrives in Uncertain Times
- Historically, gold has delivered strong performance during crises, conflicts, or abrupt policy shifts.
- Given today’s climate of heightened uncertainty, gold’s defensive qualities are particularly valuable.
Final Thoughts
Gold prices are climbing due to rising tensions in the Middle East, and many investors are moving towards safer assets. While it might be tempting to jump in now, trying to time the market can be risky. If you’re looking at gold for long-term security and portfolio balance, it’s smarter to invest slowly over time rather than rushing in during the current price surge.
FAQs
Q1. What is the future outlook for gold prices?
Ans. Many experts predict that gold prices will continue to rise over the long term, driven by growing global demand for the metal.
Q2. Where can you buy gold at the lowest price?
Ans. Countries like Malawi, Indonesia, and Colombia are known to offer gold at more affordable rates compared to India and many developed nations.
Q3. During which month is gold usually the cheapest?
Ans. Historical data shows that gold prices are typically lowest in March and often remain relatively low through the second quarter, making it a favorable time to purchase.
Q4. What is the gold price in India for 2025?
Ans. Between 2005 and June 2025, gold prices in India have surged by around 1,200%, rising from ₹7,638 to over ₹1,00,000. During this period, gold has delivered positive returns in 16 out of 20 years.
Sources: msn.com
